INDIAN BANK
HO/INTERNATIONAL DIVISION
66 Rajaji Salai, Chennai - 600 001
Website : www.indian-bank.com
FOREX NEWSLETTER
(FORTNIGHTLY)

Issue : 9/2006 16th May 2006
Currency Outlook
USD / INR 45.46 / 47
EUR/USD 1.2820 - 22

After spending much of last fortnight in the range of 44.85 and 45.10, rupee weakened against USD in the last two sessions and touched a high of 45.56 before closing the fortnight at 45.46. The down move was caused by the fall in local stock markets as well as profit booking in USD short positions against majors and metals.

In the ensuing fortnight we expect USD/INR to trade in the range of 45.20 - 45.90 with a bias to buy on dips. Forwards were received on upticks last fortnight with 6 months closing at 0.95 %. We expect this trend to continue in the ensuing fortnight with six months moving in the range of 0.75 % to 1.00 %.

EUR moved higher from 1.2560 last fortnight to touch a year high of 1.30 as markets fretted about pause in US rate hikes. Fed's hawkish tone did not cut ice. ECB officials talk about a possible rate hike in Euro zone also aided the Euro. Rumours about US acquiescing to USD weakness caused across board losses to USD against currencies / metals etc. However profit booking emerged, after EURO's unsuccessful first attempt at 1.30. USD gained a much needed reprieve moving down to 1.2814 levels.

In the ensuing fortnight, Euro is expected to be supported at 1.2640 and move higher to 1.2975.
Market seen to be interpreting all outcoming data from the angle of probable rate hikes.

GBP / USD 1.8835 - 40
USD/JPY 110.00 - 03

GBP made handsome gains against USD last fortnight touching 1.90 levels, before profit booking pushed down to a low of 1.8790. However, the data coming out of UK, paint a good picture with Industrial output expanding beyond expectations, trade deficit below forecasts, and house prices rising higher than consensus. Market interprets these data as aiding rate hike in UK.

In the ensuing fortnight we expect GBP to get supported at 1.8650 levels for a try higher again to 1.8940.


JPY gained against USD last fortnight touching a high of 109.30 levels as market expects Bank of Japan to hike rates as it slowly ends an era of ultra liquidity on the strength of picking up domestic demand. The vigorous talks of Japanese officials supporting the Usd and the rising oil prices do not seem to deter yen bulls.

In the ensuing fortnight we expect yen to top at 111.30 for a renewed try at sub 109 levels.

Other News Items
INDIA DESIRABLE MARKET FOR US' ENERGY SECTOR INVESTMENTS

India seems to be a desirable market for foreign investments, despite not having very large oil and gas reserves. According to a recent poll by Ernst & Young, five countries - Norway, Canada, Qatar, India and the United Arab Emirates - emerged to have favourable conditions for US investments in the energy sector.

Though India has the smallest oil and gas reserves with just 10 billion barrels oil equivalent (BBOE)of all countries , its rapidly growing economy and favourable foreign investment policies have helped India to attract significant oil and gas investments. According to the E&Y poll, major investment opportunities exist in development of transmission pipeline grid, local distribution networks, downstream refining, in particular setting up Export oriented units, marketing of petroleum products etc.

The E&Y poll was conducted on 10 countries including China, Indonesia, Nigeria, Russia, Saudi Arabia These nations were rated on economic stability and tax administration, government structure and accessibility, legal and regulatory systems, infrastructure in place to support oil and gas operations and availability of educated and skilled workers.

The five countries, which received a 'green light' in the poll, had all received a score of 80 percent or more under the said categories. India has a score of 84 %.

E&Y team in India also reported some deficiencies in respect to workforce education and frequent political protests, reliable Electric power systems etc. But the E&Y poll stated that with its population surging-it is expected to surpass China by 2020-even if the Indian economy were to stagnate, its consumption will increase, and drive exploration and production of its 10 BBOE.
Source: The Business Line

CENTRE PLANS TO DOUBLE SUGAR EXPORT QUOTA

The centre plans to increase exports quota to 8 lakh tonne from the originally considered 4 lakh tonne keeping in view of increased sugar production in the recently compleleted crushing season and burgeoning prices in the global market.

The policy would be released soon whereby export quota for individual sugar factories would be fixed based on two months of sugar production before the closure of crushing season.
The total sugar production is said to be about 191 lakh tonne as against projected 182 lakh tonne. The sugar units from Maharashtra with 52 lakh tonne and Uttar Pradesh with 59 lakh tonne have been major contributors for the increased prodution.

The expected increase in sugar export quota will largely benefit sugar units from the country with a gain of Rs 2000 per tonne, since the international price of sugar is Rs 19,650 per tonne net of transportation and related costs, while locally sugar is sold at Rs 17,800 per tonne.

Source: The Financial Express

VIETNAM COFFEE BEAN IMPORTS LIKELY TO FALL 50 %.

Indian coffee imports are expected to decline by 50 % in the current fiscal following jump in the prices and drop in the coffee production in Vietnam, according to Indian Coffee Exporters Association (CEA).

India imported 33,000 tonne of coffee in the last fiscal ended March 2006, 90 % of which came from Vietnam, while the remaining was from Indonesia.

Indian instant coffee makers prefer cheaper Vietnam Robusta coffee compared to Indian Robusta. Last fiscal, the landing cost of Vietnam Robusta ruled at Rs 40,000-45,000 per tonne compared to Indian coffee at Rs 55,000 per tonne.

Indian Coffee Exporters Association president Ramesh Raja has said that following the production decline in Vietnam in the current season, the landing cost of Vietnam coffee jumped to Rs 56,000 per tonne matching the Indian coffee prices.

Vietnam, which used to produce a minimum of 15 million bags every year, produced only 12 million bags in the current season (November 2005 - February 2006). At the same time, according to post blossom estimates by ICEA, the Indian coffee production is likely to surpass 3 lakh tonne in the current fiscal.

On the back of increase in Vietnam coffee prices and anticipated bumper production in India, the Indian instant coffee makers would prefer to buy Robusta beans domestically instead of importing from Vietnam.

Source: The Financial Express

FCNR & NRE Interest Rates

 

FCNRD(w.e.f. 01.05.2006)
NRE(w.e.f.
01.05.2006)
PERIOD USD GBP EUR CAD AUD NRE
1 Year & above but less than 2 years 5.33 4.87 3.32 4.35 6.00 6.30
2 Years & above but less than 3 years 5.34 4.98 3.64 4.47 6.04 6.30
3 Years & above but less than 4 years 5.35 5.06 3.78 4.56 6.13 6.40
4 Years & above but less than 5 years 5.39 5.09 3.88 4.63 6.14 6.40
5 years only 5.43 5.10 3.96

4.70

6.15 6.40
SB NRE - 3.50 % at par with domestic savings deposit

 

Archives

 

Issue 01/2006 Dt 01 01 2006 Issue 1/2004 Dt.01 06 2004 Issue 01/2005 Dt 01 01 2005 Issue 15/2005 Dt 01 08 2005
Issue 02/2006 Dt 16 01 2006 Issue 2/2004 Dt.16 06 2004 Issue 02/2005 Dt 17 01 2005 Issue 16/2005 Dt 16 08 2005
Issue 03/2006 Dt 01 02 2006 Issue 3/2004 Dt.01 07 2004 Issue 03/2005 Dt 01 02 2005 Issue 17/2005 Dt 01 09 2005
Issue 04/2006 Dt 16 02 2006 Issue 4/2004 Dt.16 07 2004 Issue 04/2005 Dt 16 02 2005 Issue 18/2005 Dt 16 09 2005
Issue 05/2006 Dt 01 03 2006 Issue 5/2004 Dt.02 08 2004 Issue 05/2005 Dt 01 03 2005 Issue 19/2005 Dt 01 10 2005
Issue 06/2006 Dt 16 03 2006 Issue 6/2004 Dt.16 08 2004 Issue 06/2005 Dt 16 03 2005 Issue 20/2005 Dt 16 10 2005
Issue 07/2006 Dt 31 03 2006 Issue 7/2004 Dt.01 09 2004 Issue 07/2005 Dt 01 04 2005 Issue 21/2005 Dt 01 11 2005
Issue 08/2006 Dt 16 04 2006 Issue 8/2004 Dt.16 09 2004 Issue 08/2005 Dt 16 04 2005 Issue 22/2005 Dt 16 11 2005
  Issue 9/2004 Dt.01 10 2004 Issue 09/2005 Dt 02 05 2005 Issue 23/2005 Dt 01 12 2005
  Issue10/2004 Dt16 10 2004 Issue 10/2005 Dt 16 05 2005 Issue 24/2005 Dt 16 12 2005
  Issue11/2004 Dt01 11 2004 Issue 11/2005 Dt 01 06 2005  
  Issue12/2004 Dt 16 11 2004 Issue 12/2005 Dt 16 06 2005  
  Issue13/2004 Dt 01 12 2004 Issue 13/2005 Dt 01 07 2005  
  Issue14/2004 Dt 16 12 2004 Issue 14/2005 Dt 16 07 2005  

 

For any clarification please contact us at ibcoid@satyammail.com

 

Disclaimer : This newsletter is for information purpose only. Indian Bank or its officials take no responsibility for the accuracy, and are not liable in any manner.


Last Updated June 2, 2006

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