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INDIAN BANK
HO/INTERNATIONAL DIVISION
and
Treasury & Investments
66 Rajaji Salai, Chennai - 600 001
Website : www.indianbank.
in
FOREX NEWSLETTER
(FORTNIGHTLY)

FOREX NEWSLETTER
August 02, 2008

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT FORTNIGHT


News Items
FIRST QUARTER REVIEW OF ANNUAL STATEMENT ON MONETARY POLICY FOR THE YEAR 2008-09

 

Highlights


Bank Rate kept unchanged.

Reverse Repo Rate under LAF kept unchanged.

Repo Rate increased by 50 basis points from 8.5 per cent to 9.00 per cent.

• Cash Reserve Ratio to be increased by 25 basis points to 9.0 per cent with effect from the fortnight beginning August 30, 2008.

• GDP growth projection for 2008-09 revised from the range of 8.0-8.5 per cent to around 8.0 per cent, barring domestic or external shocks.

• While the policy actions would aim to bring down the current intolerable level of inflation to a tolerable level of below 5.0 per cent as soon as possible and around 3.0 per cent over the medium-term, at this juncture a realistic policy endeavour would be to bring down inflation from the current level of about 11.0-12.0 per cent to a level close to 7.0 per cent by March 31, 2009.

• While there are early signs of some moderation in money supply and deposit growth, they continue to expand above the indicative projections warranting continuous vigilance and appropriate and timely policy responses.

• In view of the evolving environment of heightened uncertainty in global markets and the dangers of potential spillovers to domestic markets, liquidity management will continue to receive priority in the hierarchy of policy objectives over the period ahead.

• Barring the emergence of any adverse and unexpected developments in various sectors of the economy, assuming that capital flows are effectively managed, and keeping in view the current assessment of the economy including the outlook for growth and inflation, the overall stance of monetary policy in 2008-09 will broadly continue to be:

• To ensure a monetary and interest rate environment that accords high priority to price stability, well-anchored inflation expectations and orderly conditions in financial markets while being conducive to continuation of the growth momentum.

• To respond swiftly on a continuing basis to the evolving constellation of adverse international developments and to the domestic situation impinging on inflation expectations, financial stability and growth momentum, with both conventional and unconventional measures, as appropriate.

• To emphasize credit quality as well as credit delivery, in particular, for employment-intensive sectors, while pursuing financial inclusion.


(Source: RBI website)

TRADE DEFICIT WIDENS IN Q1


Though the country’s first quarter exports grew 22.3% to an impressive $42.84 billion, its trade deficit widened to 42% to $30.4 billion on high oil imports. Exports and trade deficit were at $35 billion and $21.4 billion in April-June 2007.

Exports make up about 15% of the country’s GDP. In June, exports rose to $14.6 billion, 23.5% higher than a year ago. Driven by greater shipments of manufactured goods, oils and gems, as well as rupee depreciation, exports growth in June was almost double the figure of 12.9% in May this year.

Trade deficit for June was up 29.3% year-on-year, at $9.7 billion and $7.5 billion, respectively. Blame for this should go partly to oil imports, which was up 53.4% at $9 billion over the year-ago figure of $5.89 billion. Oil imports in April-June 2008 too were up by 50.2% at $25.5 billion against $17 billion in the same quarter last year. However, non-oil imports in June 2008 stood at $15.4 billion, 13.9% higher than non-oil imports of $13.5 billion in June 2007. Non-oil imports during April-June 2008 were at $47.74 billion, 20.9% higher than the level of such imports valued at $3.95 billion in April-June 2007.

Non-oil imports grew by 32.3% in April 2008 but slipped to 17.4% in May. Oil imports, on the other hand, grew 46.2% in April and 50.8% in May. Exports touched $155.5 billion in 2007-08 and the government has set a target of $200 billion for this year’s exports. Though exports growth in June is healthy, prospects, going forward, are cloudy by rising inflation, a decline in non-oil imports, rising oil imports and growth slowdown in crucial markets like the US. Expectations of rupee appreciation in coming months would also hurt.

( Source: The Financial Express)

FOREX VIEW FOR THE FORTNIGHT ENDING 14-08-08

 

 
Support
Resistance
Bias
EURO
DAILY
1.5450
1.5770
\/
WEEKLY
1.5450
1.5790
\/
MONTHLY
1.5380
1.5870
\/
       
GBP
DAILY
1.9640
1.9950
\/
WEEKLY
1.9640
1.9990
\/
MONTHLY
1.9600
2.0070
\/
JPY
DAILY
106.00
108.40
\/
WEEKLY
105.00
108.60
N
MONTHLY
103.70
109.00
/\
 

USD/INR = Easier oil prices have helped INR but geo-political tensions are rather fragile and upshoot in oil prices cannot be ruled out. Sensex is swaying both ways in line with global uncertainties. 41.80 may be tough to break with 42.80 seen as resistance for the time being.

EURO = A string of “not so bad” from the US has surprised the markets. This, combines with a “not so bullish” view from the Euro zone has made Euro test 1.56 levels. Technically heading downwards but well supported at each level..

GBP = BOE is widely expected to keep rates on hold. Higher CPI (mostly driven by oil) but lower GDP must be a tough nut to crack. The economy seems to be slowing down and technically too, GBP down.

JPY = While mixed data from the US pushed down other crosses, risk aversion on global uncertainties pulls up the yen buts finds USD buyers at close to 105.00 levels. 109.00 will be tough to break

PS: Views expressed here are only indications. The Bank or any of its officials will not be responsible for any consequences of any decisions taken on the basis of these indications.

 

 

FCNR & NRE Interest Rates

NRE Term Deposits & FCNR (B) Deposits (w.e.f. August 01, 2008)

FCNR (B) DEPOSITS (w.e.f. 01.08.2008)
NRE(w.e.f.01.08.2008)
PERIOD
USD
GBP
EUR
CAD
AUD
NRE TERM DEPOSITS
1 Year & above but less than 2 years
2.50
5.42
4.62
3.10
7.37
3.25
2 Years & above but less than 3 years
2.75
4.88
4.29
2.67
6.57
3.50
3 Years & above but less than 4 years
3.11
4.87
4.25
2.86
6.50
3.86
4 Years & above but less than 5 years
3.34
4.85
4.22
2.99
6.52
3.86
5 years only
3.49
4.81
4.19

3.10

6.49
3.86
SB NRE - 3.50 % at par with domestic savings deposit

 

RFC TERM DEPOSITS

RFC Term Deposits (w.e.f. August 01, 2008)

PERIOD
CURRENCY
USD
GBP
EUR
1 Year & above but less than 2 years
2.50
5.42
4.62
2 Years & above but less than 3 years
2.75
4.88
4.29
3 Years & above but less than 4 years
3.11
4.87
4.25
4 Years & above but less than 5 years
3.34
4.85
4.22
5 years only
3.49
4.81
4.19

Archives Please CLICK HERE for viewing FX News Letters of Previous Years

 

Issue 23/2006 Dt 15 01 2007 Issue 05/2007 Dt 01.06.2007 Issue 13/2007 Dt 15.10.2007 Issue 5/2008 Dt 01.04.2008
Issue 24/2006 Dt 31 01 2007 Issue 06/2007 Dt 18.06.2007 Issue 14/2007 Dt 31.10.2007 Issue 6/2008 Dt 15.04.2008
Issue 25/2006 Dt 16 02 2007

Issue 07/2007 Dt 02.07.2007

Issue 15/2007 Dt 24.11.2007 Issue 7/2008 Dt 08.05.2008
Issue 26/2006 Dt 15 03 2007 Issue 08/2007 Dt 15.07.2007 Issue 16/2007 Dt 17.12.2007 Issue 8/2008 Dt 07.07.2008
Issue 01/2007 Dt 01.04.2007 Issue 09/2007 Dt 01.08.2007 Issue 1/2008 Dt 07.01.2008  
Issue 02/2007 Dt 15.04.2007 Issue 10/2007 Dt 16.08.2007 Issue 2/2008 Dt 21.01.2008  
Issue 03/2007 Dt 02.05.2007 Issue 11/2007 Dt 15.09.2007 Issue 3/2008 Dt 02.02.2008  
Issue 04/2007 Dt 16.05.2007 Issue 12/2007 Dt 01.10.2007 Issue 4/2008 Dt 15.03.2008  

 

For any clarification please contact us at ibcoid@satyammail.com

Disclaimer : This newsletter is for information purpose only. Indian Bank or its officials take no responsibility for the accuracy, and are not liable in any manner.


Last Updated August 2, 2008


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