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INDIAN BANK
HO/INTERNATIONAL DIVISION
and
Treasury & Investments
66 Rajaji Salai, Chennai - 600 001
Website : www.indianbank.
in
FOREX NEWSLETTER
(FORTNIGHTLY)

FOREX NEWSLETTER
July 07, 2008

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT FORTNIGHT


News Items
HIGHLIGHTS OF RBI ANNUAL POLICY STATEMENT FOR 2008-09

 

Monetary Measures


Bank Rate kept unchanged at 6.0 per cent. Reverse Repo Rate and Repo Rate kept unchanged at 6.00 per cent and 7.75 per cent, respectively.

The Reserve Bank retains the option to conduct overnight repo or longer term repo under the LAF depending on market conditions and other relevant factors.

Cash reserve ratio (CRR) of scheduled banks increased to 8.25 per cent with effect from the fortnight beginning May 24, 2008.


Developmental and Regulatory Policies

• Issuances of Floating Rate Bonds (FRBs) to be considered at an appropriate time taking into account market conditions.

• A module of the NDS auction for non-competitive bidding scheme in the auctions of State Development Loans (SDLs) being developed by the CCIL is expected to become functional by September 2008.

• Action on the recommendations of the Working Group on Interest Rate Futures would be initiated on the basis of the feedback received.

• A settlement mechanism in Government securities through settlement banks for participants who do not maintain current accounts but maintain SGL accounts with the Reserve Bank to be operationalised in May 2008.

• To allow access to NDS-OM extended to investors such as other non-deposit taking NBFCs, corporates and FIIs through the CSGL route.

• Following the enactment of the Payment and Settlement Systems Act, 2007, a clearing and settlement arrangement for OTC rupee derivatives to be put in place in consultation with the CCIL.

• Currency futures to be introduced in the eligible exchanges in consultation with the SEBI; the broad framework to be finalised by the end of May 2008; RBI-SEBI Standing Technical Committee has been set up to advise on operational aspects.

• Indian parties may approach the Reserve Bank for capitalisation of export proceeds for exports outstanding beyond the prescribed period of realisation.

• To permit authorised dealer (AD) banks to write off, in addition to claims settled by the Export Credit Guarantee Corporation of India (ECGC), the outstanding export bills settled by other insurance companies which are regulated by the Insurance Regulatory Development Authority (IRDA).

• To enhance the present period for realisation and repatriation to India of the full export value of goods or software exported from six months to twelve months from the date of export, subject to review after one year.



(Source: RBI website)

COSTLIER MANUFACTURED ITEMS DRIVE UP INFLATION TO 11.63%


Inflation surged further to 11.63% during the week ended June 21, up from the 11.42 per cent annual rate recorded for the previous week, to touch its highest since the current series began in 1995.

The annual Wholesale Price Index-based inflation accelerated further during the latest reported week mainly on account of increasing inflationary trends witnessed among manufactured products, especially dairy items, edible oils, malt liquor, perfumes and cosmetics, and the iron and steel products.

During the review period, the Wholesale Price Index of all commodities rose to 0.4 per cent to 237.1. During the same period last year, it had increased to 0.2 per cent to 212.4. Inflation in case of primary articles, notably fruits, cereals, milk and metallic minerals, besides the fuel group items also continued to remain at high levels.

The Manufactured Products group index rose to 10.28 per cent on an year-on-year basis during the latest week, up from 9.74 per cent the previous week, as inflation in dairy products (11 per cent), edible oils (17 per cent), perfumes and cosmetics (9 per cent), malt liquor (10 per cent) and iron and steel (35 per cent) continued to stay high.

Inflation has risen rapidly (759 basis points) since the beginning of this calendar year. The headline inflation crossed the tolerance level of five per cent fixed by the RBI for 2007-08 in the week ended February 23, 2008 itself. It has been rising rapidly since then and crossed the eight per cent mark in the week ended May 17 and has now remained above 11 per cent for the third consecutive week.

( Source: Businessline)

OIL PRICE IMPACT WIDENS CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT – ROBUST GROWTH IN INVISIBLES CUSHIONS CRUDE SHOCK


Oil prices played spoilsport with the quarterly macro-economic balance sheet of the country released by the Reserve Bank of India. With the country importing 70% of its oil requirements and the near doubling of oil prices during the period under review – the fourth quarter (Jan-March 2008), it was obvious that the balance of trade would be in a deficit.

The impact of this was partially offset by the robust growth in ‘invisibles’. The 30% growth in invisibles that comprises transactions in services such as software and inward remittances from Non-resident Indians helped reduce the margin of the deficit. In the fourth quarter of the last fiscal, the current account balance went in a deficit of $ 1 billion as against a surplus balance of $ 4.3 billion in Q4 of 2006-07. The current account deficit for the whole fiscal widened to $ 17.4 billion compared to nearly $ 10 billion in the earlier year.

Net foreign exchange earnings from software and other services during the last fiscal (2007-08) have risen by about 28% to $37 billion. Private transfers from individuals grew significantly at about 45% last fiscal to about $42.5 billion. The country’s capital account had a surplus of $109.57 billion in the last fiscal compared with a surplus of $46 billion in the previous fiscal. Foreign direct investments of $15.5 billion, portfolio investments of $29 billion and external commercial borrowings of about $22 billion were major components of capital inflows during the last fiscal.

( Source: Businessline )

FOREIGN INVESTMENT PUMPED UP RESERVES


Foreign investment was the biggest source of accretion to India’s foreign exchange reserves in 2007-08 at $44.8 billion, against $15.6 billion in the previous year. Under foreign investment, portfolio investments pumped in $29.3 billion against $7.1 billion in the previous year while FDI brought in $51.5 billion, up from $8.5 billion.

According to the RBI, the accretion to the foreign exchange reserves was $9.2 billion on a balance of payment basis (excluding valuation effects) during the recently concluded fiscal. Valuation gain, which reflects the appreciation of major currencies against the US dollar, accounted for $18.3 billion in total reserves during 2007-08 as against a valuation gain of $11 billion during the corresponding period of previous year.

The foreign exchange reserves have increased by an amount of $110.5 billion during the same period, if valuation effects are included, against an increase of $47.6 billion last year. Other major sources of accretion to the forex reserves during the first quarter include External Commercial Borrowings at $22.2 billion ($16.2 billion), banking capital including NRI deposits at $11.8 billion ($1.9 billion) and short term credit at $17.7 billion ($6.6 billion).

( Source: Businessline )

FOREX VIEW FOR THE FORTNIGHT ENDING 15-07-08

 

 
Support
Resistance
Bias
EURO
DAILY
1.5660/1.5570
1.5770/1.5795
N
WEEKLY
1.5650/1.5570
1.5780/1.5850
N
MONTHLY
1.5650/1.5570
1.5780/1.5850
\/
       
GBP
DAILY
1.9710/1.9650
1.9885
N
WEEKLY
1.9740/1.9600
1.9890/1.9950
N
MONTHLY
1.9580
1.9890/1.9950
\/
JPY
DAILY
106.30/105.80
107.40/107.90
/\
WEEKLY
105.35
108.10
N
MONTHLY
104.70
108.70
/\
 

USD/INR = INR weakness to continue till inflows overcome the outflows. The range expected for the fortnight is likely to be 42.90 to 43.80.

EURO = The euphoria of ECB interest rate hike has ultimately concluded with an anticipated 25 bps increase. But the post meeting press conference by ECB president has clearly indicated that EUR union is not going to sacrifice growth and there may not be any further hike this year. Overall EUR to trade within a band and more of technical play likely.

GBP = The economic scenario in UK has ruled out any rate hike in GBP for the time being which will keep this pair under pressure for some more time. With some good news from the US, we might see GBP heading south decisively.

JPY = The Tankan survey helped Yen to rise against USD for a brief period but overall picture shows Yen weakness against USD for the ensuing fortnight.

PS: Views expressed here are only indications. The Bank or any of its officials will not be responsible for any consequences of any decisions taken on the basis of these indications.

 

 

FCNR & NRE Interest Rates

NRE Term Deposits & FCNR (B) Deposits (w.e.f. July 01, 2008)

FCNR (B) DEPOSITS (w.e.f. 01.07.2008)
NRE(w.e.f.01.07.2008)
PERIOD
USD
GBP
EUR
CAD
AUD
NRE TERM DEPOSITS
1 Year & above but less than 2 years
2.56
5.70
4.64
3.29
7.77
3.31
2 Years & above but less than 3 years
2.85
5.50
4.62
2.86
7.21
3.60
3 Years & above but less than 4 years
3.20
5.47
4.55
3.01
7.12
3.95
4 Years & above but less than 5 years
3.42
5.41
4.47
3.11
7.13
3.95
5 years only
3.56
5.32
4.41

3.19

7.02
3.95
SB NRE - 3.50 % at par with domestic savings deposit

 

RFC TERM DEPOSITS

RFC Term Deposits (w.e.f. July 01, 2008)

PERIOD
CURRENCY
USD
GBP
EUR
1 Year & above but less than 2 years
2.56
5.70
4.64
2 Years & above but less than 3 years
2.85
5.50
4.62
3 Years & above but less than 4 years
3.20
5.47
4.55
4 Years & above but less than 5 years
3.42
5.41
4.47
5 years only
3.56
5.32
4.41

Archives Please CLICK HERE for viewing FX News Letters of Previous Years

 

Issue 23/2006 Dt 15 01 2007 Issue 05/2007 Dt 01.06.2007 Issue 13/2007 Dt 15.10.2007 Issue 5/2008 Dt 01.04.2008
Issue 24/2006 Dt 31 01 2007 Issue 06/2007 Dt 18.06.2007 Issue 14/2007 Dt 31.10.2007 Issue 6/2008 Dt 15.04.2008
Issue 25/2006 Dt 16 02 2007

Issue 07/2007 Dt 02.07.2007

Issue 15/2007 Dt 24.11.2007 Issue 7/2008 Dt 08.05.2008
Issue 26/2006 Dt 15 03 2007 Issue 08/2007 Dt 15.07.2007 Issue 16/2007 Dt 17.12.2007  
Issue 01/2007 Dt 01.04.2007 Issue 09/2007 Dt 01.08.2007 Issue 1/2008 Dt 07.01.2008  
Issue 02/2007 Dt 15.04.2007 Issue 10/2007 Dt 16.08.2007 Issue 2/2008 Dt 21.01.2008  
Issue 03/2007 Dt 02.05.2007 Issue 11/2007 Dt 15.09.2007 Issue 3/2008 Dt 02.02.2008  
Issue 04/2007 Dt 16.05.2007 Issue 12/2007 Dt 01.10.2007 Issue 4/2008 Dt 15.03.2008  

 

For any clarification please contact us at ibcoid@satyammail.com

Disclaimer : This newsletter is for information purpose only. Indian Bank or its officials take no responsibility for the accuracy, and are not liable in any manner.


Last Updated July 7, 2008


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