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INDIAN BANK
HO/INTERNATIONAL DIVISION
and
Treasury & Investments
66 Rajaji Salai, Chennai - 600 001
Website : www.indianbank.
in
FOREX NEWSLETTER
(FORTNIGHTLY)

FOREX NEWSLETTER
May 08, 2008

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT FORTNIGHT


News Items
HIGHLIGHTS OF RBI ANNUAL POLICY STATEMENT FOR 2008-09

 

Monetary Measures


Bank Rate kept unchanged at 6.0 per cent. Reverse Repo Rate and Repo Rate kept unchanged at 6.00 per cent and 7.75 per cent, respectively.

The Reserve Bank retains the option to conduct overnight repo or longer term repo under the LAF depending on market conditions and other relevant factors.

Cash reserve ratio (CRR) of scheduled banks increased to 8.25 per cent with effect from the fortnight beginning May 24, 2008.


Developmental and Regulatory Policies

• Issuances of Floating Rate Bonds (FRBs) to be considered at an appropriate time taking into account market conditions.

• A module of the NDS auction for non-competitive bidding scheme in the auctions of State Development Loans (SDLs) being developed by the CCIL is expected to become functional by September 2008.

• Action on the recommendations of the Working Group on Interest Rate Futures would be initiated on the basis of the feedback received.

• A settlement mechanism in Government securities through settlement banks for participants who do not maintain current accounts but maintain SGL accounts with the Reserve Bank to be operationalised in May 2008.

• To allow access to NDS-OM extended to investors such as other non-deposit taking NBFCs, corporates and FIIs through the CSGL route.

• Following the enactment of the Payment and Settlement Systems Act, 2007, a clearing and settlement arrangement for OTC rupee derivatives to be put in place in consultation with the CCIL.

• Currency futures to be introduced in the eligible exchanges in consultation with the SEBI; the broad framework to be finalised by the end of May 2008; RBI-SEBI Standing Technical Committee has been set up to advise on operational aspects.

• Indian parties may approach the Reserve Bank for capitalisation of export proceeds for exports outstanding beyond the prescribed period of realisation.

• To permit authorised dealer (AD) banks to write off, in addition to claims settled by the Export Credit Guarantee Corporation of India (ECGC), the outstanding export bills settled by other insurance companies which are regulated by the Insurance Regulatory Development Authority (IRDA).

• To enhance the present period for realisation and repatriation to India of the full export value of goods or software exported from six months to twelve months from the date of export, subject to review after one year.



(Source: RBI website)

FDI INFLOWS IN 2007-08 UP 56% AT $24.57 b


Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows during 2007-08 stood at $24.57 billion, up 56.50 per cent compared with $15.7 billion in 2006-07. For 2008-09, the Government is targeting around $35 billion FDI inflows, said the Union Commerce & Industries Minister. “There has been a phenomenal level of confidence in India as an investment destination starting from 2004-05. In just four years, inflows have increased eight times. If one takes into account the reinvested earnings then the total FDI for the year stands at $30 billion, “ he said

Out of the total FDI inflow, around $9 billion are advances for which shares have not been issued till March 31. This amount would be accounted as FDI for the current year. So, we started the year with an opening balance of $9 billion in FDI, the Minister added. He further pointed out that around 80 per cent of the FDI inflows in 2007-08 are greenfield investments.

( Source: Businessline)

RBI MOVES FORWARD ON CURRENCY FUTURES EXCHANGE


In a bid to improve price discovery mechanisms and bring greater transparency, the Reserve Bank of India has proposed to prepare the framework for a currency futures exchange in consultation with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). Currency Futures are expected to be introduced in the eligible exchanges, once the framework is finalised by May-end. A RBI-SEBI standing committee has been set up to advise on the operational aspects of currency futures.

Initially the only residents are permitted as eligible participants, with gradual and phased entry envisaged for non-residents. Currently, the only available hedges are over the counter (OTC), mostly forward rates or options. Pricing of OTC hedges, however, is not transparent. Exchange traded currency futures are intended to bring about greater transparency in the pricing of hedges. Besides, the mechanism is also intended to aid price discovery of hedges. The exchange is also expected to broadbase the markets. At present only large corporates use hedging tools for covering their foreign currency risks.

( Source: Businessline )

FOREX VIEW FOR THE FORTNIGHT ENDING 16-05-08

 

 
Support
Resistance
Bias
EURO
DAILY
1.5285
1.5600
NEUTRAL
WEEKLY
1.5280
1.5620
DOWN
MONTHLY
1.5200
1.5645
DOWN
       
GBP
DAILY
1.9410
1.9730
DOWN
WEEKLY
1.9410
1.9790
DOWN
MONTHLY
1.9335
1.9920
DOWN
JPY
DAILY
101.80
104.80
UP
WEEKLY
101.20
105.25
UP
MONTHLY
99.90
105.70
UP
 

USD/INR = The sharp depreciation in INR was driven mainly by all-time high oil prices and lack of matching supply. The trend seems likely to continue into the next week. Seen in a broad range of 40.50 – 42.50.

EURO = Euro draws comfort from Trichet’s comments that inflation remains his top concern. However, the risk aversion factor may alter the EUR-JPY balance. Expected to trade in a range of 1.5280 – 1.5620.

GBP = Though BOE held rates, weak economic data coupled with high energy prices poses a dilemma of low growth and inflation. Unwinding of carry trades on global risk aversion may also weaken the pair. Seen in a range of 1.9445 – 1.9790.

JPY = The latest string of news of the financial majors declaring losses seems to indicate that the current phase may not be close to the end of the ongoing crisis. This may trigger a fresh bout of risk aversion and unwinding of carry trade which will add strength to the Yen. Seen in a range of 101.20 -105.20.

PS: Views expressed here are only indications. The Bank or any of its officials will not be responsible for any consequences of any decisions taken on the basis of these indications.

 

 

FCNR & NRE Interest Rates

NRE Term Deposits & FCNR (B) Deposits (w.e.f. July 01, 2008)

FCNR (B) DEPOSITS (w.e.f. 01.07.2008)
NRE(w.e.f.01.07.2008)
PERIOD
USD
GBP
EUR
CAD
AUD
NRE TERM DEPOSITS
1 Year & above but less than 2 years
2.56
5.70
4.64
3.29
7.77
3.31
2 Years & above but less than 3 years
2.85
5.50
4.62
2.86
7.21
3.60
3 Years & above but less than 4 years
3.20
5.47
4.55
3.01
7.12
3.95
4 Years & above but less than 5 years
3.42
5.41
4.47
3.11
7.13
3.95
5 years only
3.56
5.32
4.41

3.19

7.02
3.95
SB NRE - 3.50 % at par with domestic savings deposit

 

RFC TERM DEPOSITS

RFC Term Deposits (w.e.f. July 01, 2008)

PERIOD
CURRENCY
USD
GBP
EUR
1 Year & above but less than 2 years
2.56
5.70
4.64
2 Years & above but less than 3 years
2.85
5.50
4.62
3 Years & above but less than 4 years
3.20
5.47
4.55
4 Years & above but less than 5 years
3.42
5.41
4.47
5 years only
3.56
5.32
4.41

Archives Please CLICK HERE for viewing FX News Letters of Previous Years

 

Issue 23/2006 Dt 15 01 2007 Issue 05/2007 Dt 01.06.2007 Issue 13/2007 Dt 15.10.2007 Issue 5/2008 Dt 01.04.2008
Issue 24/2006 Dt 31 01 2007 Issue 06/2007 Dt 18.06.2007 Issue 14/2007 Dt 31.10.2007 Issue 6/2008 Dt 15.04.2008
Issue 25/2006 Dt 16 02 2007

Issue 07/2007 Dt 02.07.2007

Issue 15/2007 Dt 24.11.2007  
Issue 26/2006 Dt 15 03 2007 Issue 08/2007 Dt 15.07.2007 Issue 16/2007 Dt 17.12.2007  
Issue 01/2007 Dt 01.04.2007 Issue 09/2007 Dt 01.08.2007 Issue 1/2008 Dt 07.01.2008  
Issue 02/2007 Dt 15.04.2007 Issue 10/2007 Dt 16.08.2007 Issue 2/2008 Dt 21.01.2008  
Issue 03/2007 Dt 02.05.2007 Issue 11/2007 Dt 15.09.2007 Issue 3/2008 Dt 02.02.2008  
Issue 04/2007 Dt 16.05.2007 Issue 12/2007 Dt 01.10.2007 Issue 4/2008 Dt 15.03.2008  

 

For any clarification please contact us at ibcoid@satyammail.com

Disclaimer : This newsletter is for information purpose only. Indian Bank or its officials take no responsibility for the accuracy, and are not liable in any manner.


Last Updated July 7, 2008


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